Peace talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government: what can happen in the next phase?

 When US and Taliban officials signed a landmark agreement in Qatar in February, they refrained from calling it a "peace deal." In the weeks that followed, it became clear why they did so. Insurgents stopped attacks on international troops, but clashes between the Taliban and Afghan security forces continued. The agreement sets an initial date for the withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan, provided that the Taliban is prevented from using the territory to attack al-Qaeda or the United States or its allies. It also pledged for the first time to start direct talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government so that Afghan leaders can take steps to find a political solution. The talks are set to take place in Qatar this week to end a two-decade-long war and thousands of deaths. The talks were scheduled to begin in March but were delayed by months of delays in the release of prisoners. The agreement between the United States and the Taliban stipulates that "up to 5,000" Taliban prisoners will be released by the Afghan government before negotiations, in exchange for the release of 1,000 Taliban security forces personnel who have joined the militants. Are in prison. The Afghan government, which was not part of the US-Taliban talks, objected to the condition. Afghan officials hoped to get a concession on the release of Taliban prisoners. But the Taliban instead resorted to escalating violence. The annex to the US-Taliban agreement, which has not yet been made public, was intended to reduce crashes. According to a reliable source, the Taliban were allowed to continue their operations in rural areas, but not in major cities. - US Special Envoy to Afghanistan Zalmai Khalilzad and Taliban leader Mullah Abdul  The United States, meanwhile, will not launch airstrikes on Taliban fighters in any camps or villages, and will only be able to carry out airstrikes in areas where fighting is ongoing. This gave the Taliban a free hand to step up attacks on Afghan security forces at checkpoints in remote areas. There have been occasions when the militant group has carried out major attacks in some cities. Maybe they wanted to see what the American reaction would be. In doing so, they increased pressure on the Afghan government. Some pro-government leaders have been targeted and assassinated, but no group has claimed responsibility. Finally, President Ashraf Ghani released 400 detained Taliban prisoners. He alleged that the prisoners were responsible for serious crimes. Despite the decision to release him, there were several delays. One reason was that the Afghan government had demanded the release of many of its soldiers held captive by the Taliban. Another reason is that France and Australia opposed the release of prisoners of war who had been involved in the killings of Afghan civilians. However, concerns were raised in the United States, and all other detainees were released last week. However, the Americans became increasingly frustrated with the situation and the remaining Taliban prisoners were released last week, while arrangements have been made to hand over to Qatar seven prisoners who were involved in attacks on foreigners. These people will be monitored in Qatar. The next step in establishing peace is the start of talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government. The focus of these inter-Afghan talks will be the original peace agreement.

Officials and, of course, ordinary Afghans hope a ceasefire will be agreed upon. The Taliban seem ready to continue fighting until their demands are met. The Taliban see the greatest benefit in violence and are very careful about allowing their fighters to carry weapons. This is because there is a danger that it will not be difficult to reorganize these fighters and that these rivals will not join the Islamic State. The negotiators will also try to reach an agreement on the country's political future. This is a difficult goal. How to reconcile conflicting and competing ideas. On the one hand, there is the thinking of the Taliban and Islamic State, and on the other hand, there is an Afghanistan that has moved forward on a more modern and more democratic basis over the past two decades. From the mid-1990s until the US invasion in 2001, the Taliban ruled most of Afghanistan, enforcing their strict interpretation of Sharia law. Women's work and girls' schooling were banned. The Taliban insist they are not opposed to girls 'education and often deny that they ever banned girls' education. There have also been statements from the Taliban regarding Islamic injunctions to protect women's rights. However, most Afghans are unsure of the extent to which the Taliban's thinking has changed. Leading journalist Farah Naz Furutan has launched an online campaign entitled 'My Red Line' or 'My Tolerance.' Should be "The Taliban have to accept the reality of today's Afghanistan," Farah Naz told the BBC. If they do not, these peace talks will not yield real results. ”A diplomat overseeing peace efforts says the Taliban have deliberately kept their political views ambiguous. In an interview last year, I specifically asked the Taliban's top negotiator if he would accept the democratic process. He said he could not comment. "Many forms of government have been tried in Afghanistan," he said. Some people want an Emirati system, some want a presidential system of government, ”he said, adding that the Taliban would accept whatever the majority of negotiators wanted. Meanwhile, US troops have already been reduced. Under the US-Taliban agreement, the withdrawal of US troops will be possible by May 2021, provided the Taliban to keep their promises to al-Qaeda and begin talks with the government. The withdrawal of US troops is not bound by a settlement between the Afghan government and the Taliban. Ahead of the current presidential election, US President Donald Trump has repeatedly hinted that he wants the US military back home as soon as possible. He has promised to limit the number of US troops to 5,000 by November. This is the lowest number since the US intervention in 2001.

So far, the United States has not been able to achieve this goal, despite warnings from the United Nations and US officials that relations with the Taliban and al-Qaeda could deteriorate. One commentator told the BBC that the Trump administration's first priority was to get assurances from the Taliban that they would co-operate in the fight against terrorism, while women's rights and human rights were not considered a priority. According to reports, many European countries are concerned about the rapid withdrawal of troops and its aftermath. According to some experts, if Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden is elected president in November, he may be interested in slowing down the US withdrawal.

It has also been suggested that Afghan President Ashraf Ghani may have deliberately delayed the release of prisoners to see if the US leadership would change its mind. With the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, many Taliban supporters believe that they will now be able to determine if such a society will be established. These talks will give the first impression of the group. So far, the leadership has spoken of establishing an "Islamic government" that includes "everyone." Talks are underway, but it is likely that the Taliban will propose an "interim" government of which they will be a part. But it is unclear how this will work and how it will affect the current Afghan political leadership. Despite their tough stance in the past, Taliban officials have insisted they value international legitimacy. In the 1990s, only a handful of countries recognized his rule in Afghanistan, and he succeeded in occupying the entire country. Even today, despite large-scale operations in many areas, the Taliban have not been able to maintain their presence in urban centers. In particular, the European Union has said that if no government in the future adheres to international human rights principles, investment and aid could be stopped. Given the pace of progress, negotiations could take a long time and the outcome is currently uncertain. However, after years of fighting, no one has won on the battlefield, but now at least the Afghan people have a chance at peace.