Tensions with China or US elections due to Indian Defense Minister's visit to Iran?

 Many were shocked when Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh tweeted on September 5 that he would return to Iran from Russia. This was because his three-day visit to Russia was pre-arranged, but there were no public reports of a stay in Iran. The meeting between the Indian and Iranian defense ministers was in the headlines amid border tensions between India and China and China's growing rapprochement with Iran.

Rajnath Singh met with Iranian Defense Minister Brigadier General Amir Hatami in Tehran, after which he tweeted on Sunday, "The meeting with the Iranian Defense Minister was very successful. We discussed bilateral cooperation on a number of security issues in the region, including Afghanistan. Indian Foreign Secretary's visit to Bangladesh, an attempt to bridge the gap? At first glance, this may seem like a normal meeting between the defense ministers of the two countries, but international affairs experts and analysts are looking at this meeting in the context of far-reaching goals. Rakesh Bhatt, a senior journalist who has lived in Iran for many years and has a deep understanding of India's internal affairs, says that tensions between India and China have been going on for a long time, on the one hand, and 400 400 billion between Iran and China on the other. The deal is done. "Under these circumstances, India does not want to lose its traditional partner Iran to China," he said. Iran also does not want to be under the influence of China or any other country. That is why both India and Iran need each other. That is the reason behind the recent meeting between the Indian and Iranian defense ministers. ”Rakesh Bhatt also sees the meeting in the context of the US elections this year. "If a Democratic government is formed in the United States and Biden comes to power, there will be great changes in the whole of the Middle East, including Iran," he said. It is thought Biden will try to take America back to the time of Barack Obama. It is also possible that they will try to renegotiate a nuclear deal with Iran. Rakesh Bhatt believes that if India returns to Iran if the nuclear deal is renewed, it will not have very good results because Iran still needs countries like India the most.

Under a six-nation nuclear deal in 2015, Iran had to suspend its nuclear program in return for easing sanctions by the United Nations, the United States and the European Union. But in 2018, Donald Trump pulled the United States out of the deal. ٢٠١٩ The United States tightened sanctions on Iran, and in 2020 the treaty was completely terminated. Middle East expert Qamar Agha also largely agrees with the US election argument. However, he says that the relationship between India and the United States is based on mutual relations. According to him, whether it is a Republican government or a Democratic one in the United States, India will not be affected much. However, a change of government in the United States will have a huge impact on Iran. While the rapprochement between Iran and China is growing, tensions between India and China are steadily rising. In such a situation, how can India and Iran get along with each other? Qamar Agha says, "India would not even want Iran, China and Pakistan to come together because it would be very detrimental to it." On the other hand, Iran would never want its traditional and important ally India to go against it with the United States or Western countries. So, despite all the challenges, there is no other way for the two countries to work together. Talmiz Ahmed, who has served as India's ambassador to Middle East countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Oman, does not link Rajnath Singh's meeting to the US election.

He believes that even if a Democratic government were to come to power in the United States, it would not be easy to repair the damage done by Trump's decisions because there are so many anti-Iranian groups there. Talmeez Ahmed gives two reasons for this meeting which took place in a hurry.

Talmiz says that in recent years, India has distanced itself from Iran under pressure from US sanctions. India, once the world's second-largest importer of oil from Iran, has almost stopped importing oil. Bilateral trade between India and Iran has declined by more than 70% in 2019-20 compared to 19-19. While this trade was جہاں 17.3 billion in 2018-19, it decreased to 4.77 billion in 2019-20. Work on the Chabahar rail project was so late that Iran separated India from it.While tensions continue in India and China, Iran, China, Russia and Pakistan are approaching. China and Iran have signed a 400 400 billion agreement over the next 25 years, which includes economic, strategic, defense and intelligence cooperation.

Sino-Russian relations are also deepening. The three countries that do not have good relations with the United States, namely China, Russia and Iran, seem to be coming together. If you look at the world map, a political alliance is being formed in the north and northwest of India. In such a situation, it is natural for India to return to Iran. Talmiz Ahmed says that even though it is being said in the media that Rajnath Singh has held this meeting out of concern over the volatile situation in the Persian Gulf and for the security of Afghanistan, but in fact the reason is India's Iran. Has a weakening relationship with In July this year, it was reported that Iran had separated India from the Chabahar rail project. The reason for this was the delay in receiving funds from India. However, Iran later denied the allegations. At present, no concrete response has been received from either side as to whether India has anything to do with the Chabahar rail project to date. What will be the future of this project? In answer to this question, Talmiz Ahmed speaks of paying attention to the ground reality.

"If you look at the ground reality, India and Iran agreed on the project in 2003," he said. In addition, Afghanistan, Russia and Central Asia agreed to launch a few more connectivity projects. In other words, these strategically important projects for India came into being much earlier than China's One Road One Belt project. But since then, until 2016, there has been no significant progress on the ground in these projects. "In 2016, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi did try to push it forward, but then with the arrival of Trump in the United States, the impact of Iranian sanctions overwhelmed India," he added. Talmiz Ahmed believes that after waiting for India for 17 years, Iran is still waiting for it, now it seems difficult to do so. "Even though Iran has not openly accepted the idea of ​​excluding India from the Chabahar project, I think China's role will definitely increase here," he said. Whatever the reason, the visit is important for improving relations between Iran and India.