Gilgit-Baltistan: Is the constitutional and legal status of the region going to change?

During a meeting with a delegation of journalists from Gilgit-Baltistan in Islamabad on September 16, Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan Affairs Minister Ali Amin Gandapur broke the news that the government had taken this decision after consultation with all parties. That Gilgit-Baltistan be given full constitutional rights and representation in Parliament as well as the status of a province of Pakistan. Journalist Shabbir Hussain was also present in the meeting. He told the BBC that Ali Amin Gandapur had said that Imran Khan would visit the area soon and make a formal announcement in this regard as he wanted to convey to the people of Gilgit-Baltistan that he had promised full accession to Pakistan. Intend to meet According to Shabbir Hussain, Ali Amin Gandapur also assured that after becoming a province, work on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) Special Economic Zone in Gilgit-Baltistan would accelerate, while health, tourism and education would be accelerated. Significant improvements will be made in these areas. General Qamar Javed Bajwa, Commander-in-Chief of the Pakistan Army, Lt. Gen. Faiz Hamid, Director General of the ISI, and prominent leaders of Pakistan's main opposition political parties were present at the meeting. According to media reports, a major purpose of the meeting was to acquaint the opposition parties with the thinking of the state institutions regarding Gilgit-Baltistan and to persuade them to cooperate for future constitutional amendments to make the region part of Pakistan. Was Pakistani media claim that the meeting did not end on a better note overall but on September 20, when a joint statement was issued after the country's multi-party conference of the opposition in Islamabad, it included Gilgit-Baltistan in the national mainstream. Requested to do. ۔ With a population of about 1.5 million, the region is no less than a paradise because of its majestic Malay beauty, snow-capped mountains, beautiful valleys and orchards. But along with the beauty, the area is also geographically important. It shares borders with China, India, Tajikistan and Pakistan, three of which are nuclear powers. Gilgit-Baltistan is the gateway to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. The provincial system has been implemented by Pakistan as it has its own governor and chief minister but legally this area does not have the same constitutional rights in Pakistan as other provinces of the country. Earlier, there was a law called 'State Subject Roll' under which only local people had the right to hold government jobs, hold political office and buy property. But it was abolished in the 1970s under former Prime Minister Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto. Since then, the system has been run under various laws, but the locals have always demanded that Pakistan formally annex Gilgit-Baltistan and integrate it into Pakistan permanently. Kashmiris have been vehemently opposed to the demand. He believes that Gilgit-Baltistan is part of the disputed territory and should remain so until the future of Kashmir is decided under UN resolutions. Kashmiris believe that the voice of Kashmir's independence will be more effective in any future referendum if it includes the support of the people of Gilgit-Baltistan. And that is why in the past, Pakistan has been reluctant to change the constitutional status of Gilgit-Baltistan, despite strong demands from the local population. Dr. Hassan Askari Rizvi, an expert on political and security issues, says the government's decision to create a new interim province has been signaled. But how it will happen, no details have been revealed. The idea behind creating an interim province is to move forward on the issue in a way that does not harm the Kashmir issue politically at the international level. The question is to what extent will the province of Gilgit-Baltistan be like the other four provinces and to what extent will its status be kept different? These are details that have not been disclosed. But a change in the status quo of the region will completely change Gilgit-Baltistan's relationship with Pakistan.

Dr Hassan Askari Rizvi says it is possible that the Ministry of Law and Parliamentary Affairs is working on a draft constitutional amendment in this regard. However, he believes that the widening gulf between the government and the opposition could be an obstacle to making Gilgit-Baltistan a province. "Without the cooperation of the opposition, the government will not have a two-thirds majority to amend the constitution. However, it is now clear to the opposition that the country's security establishment wants to take the matter further.The decision to integrate Gilgit-Baltistan into Pakistan is being taken in the interest of the country's security. Pakistan wants the C-Pack route to be secured. And in this regard, it is important that the concerns of the local people are addressed and that the state of political uncertainty in the area is removed, "he says." Words will be used to minimize Pakistan's position on the Kashmir issue at the international level. Kashmiris will not be happy with this development but Pakistan will try to take them into confidence. We will try to move forward strategically on this issue. ”Journalist Shabir Hussain says that the majority of the people in Gilgit-Baltistan are very happy with this decision. This was a long standing demand of the people here. And they believe that integration into Pakistan will create new opportunities for them. But Hussain believes that any formal progress in this regard is possible only after the elections in Gilgit-Baltistan in November. "Obviously, the government will have to change the constitution to create a new province. Which will be by a two-thirds majority in Parliament. This is impossible without the cooperation of the opposition. But the opposition parties want to postpone the issue till the election so that Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) does not use the issue in its election campaign to take political advantage of it. Consultations have begun to finalize constitutional amendments in this regard, but the opposition is trying to distance itself from the meeting until the election. Many Gilgit-Baltistan nationalist groups are unhappy with the announcement of the interim province. Manzoor Parwana is the chairman of the Gilgit-Baltistan United Front. He says that if Pakistan really makes this region its part like the other four provinces, then nothing could be more welcome. But he says the details that have emerged so far will not be the case. "We have been given such red pop in the past as well. Is there a provisional or conditional province in any country in the world? As long as the Kashmir dispute exists, we will not be fully integrated. Manzoor Parwana said that the map released by Pakistan on August 5 showed Gilgit-Baltistan its share. This map is being called a political map. But what is the political map? The map is based on geographical facts. Let Pakistan not play a political game with us. We should be made a part of Pakistan geographically. That is the demand of the area. ”Manzoor Parwana also alleges that so far the people of Gilgit have not been taken into confidence for any such move. "If you want to make a province, negotiate with the nationalists. Not from PPP, PTI and PML-N. These parties do not really represent the people here. ”India has so far not responded formally to the announcement. But he considers the area controversial and asserts his right to it. India has in the past always opposed changes in the constitutional and legal status of Gilgit-Baltistan. But at the moment, Pakistan's announcement to make Gilgit-Baltistan a formal province is being portrayed in the Indian media as a collusion between Pakistan and China to increase pressure on India in the current conflict between China and India's Ladakh and the current situation. Analyst Dr. Hassan Askari Rizvi rejects this impression. He says Pakistan will never get involved in the Sino-Indian conflict at the military level. However, if the dispute escalates into a war, Pakistan will openly support China. But stability in the region and the end of political uncertainty as Gilgit-Baltistan will benefit China and its economic corridors.

In the opinion of Dr. Hassan Askari Rizvi, in case of making Gilgit-Baltistan a province by Pakistan, there is no possibility of war on the part of India. He says tensions along the Line of Control could escalate, diplomatic relations could deteriorate further, the fight for information and propaganda could intensify and proxy wars could be expected to intensify, but both India and Pakistan know That a full-fledged war could be a formula for mutual destruction. Therefore, it will be avoided.

Analyst Dr Musarat Amin says Pakistan will move forward with all possible implications and consequences. It has just been announced that it has been decided to make Gilgit-Baltistan a province of Pakistan. It remains to be seen how this will work out in practice.

"Islamabad will try to take into account the concerns and demands of all stakeholders," she said. In particular, the opinion of the local people will be given weight. As this area has become very important for Pakistan's defense and economic security, Islamabad will try to minimize internal disputes over it.Dr. Masrat Amin believes that the timing of this decision is very important.

"Pakistan understands that India is currently under pressure over Ladakh. So he can try to take advantage of this opportunity. So far, Islamabad has played its cards well. He does not want to raise any military dispute but he has the right to respond to India on August 5, 2019. In Musharraf's opinion, Islamabad may take steps to make Pakistan-administered Kashmir its permanent part in the future. ۔ As India did. And in that case, India would have no moral justification to wail globally.

But on the question of whether Pakistan's historical position has been that the Kashmir issue should be resolved by the will of Kashmiris, Dr. Masrat Amin said that in the changing geo-strategic situation, Pakistan could try to persuade Kashmiris for such a solution. Is.

"When India can end the special status of Kashmir and the voice of Pakistan has no effect on the world, then the possibility of future integration of Kashmir into Pakistan cannot be ruled out altogether," said Dr Hassan Askari Rizvi. Do not completely rule out the possibility of the Line of Control becoming a permanent border. He says such proposals have been considered in talks between the two countries in the past. The Kashmir issue will not be resolved without dialogue between the two countries, but with the Modi government, resumption of talks is unlikely at the moment. But comprehensive talks between 2004 and 2008 have been discussing proposals to make the Line of Control a permanent border. And whenever such talks resume in the future, consideration of such proposals cannot be ruled out.