19 Years of the 9/11 Attacks: Where is al Qaeda now and how powerful is it?

 

Today marks the 19th anniversary of September 11, 2001, attacks in the United States, and the organization that was involved in the attacks is in disarray today. Al-Qaeda's Syrian branch, a former militant group operating from Afghanistan, was defeated by a rival group in June this year. It was later defeated by local insurgents in Yemen when one of its leaders was killed in a US drone strike. The leader of the organization's North African branch also died in June when he was targeted in French attacks in the African country of Mali, and no leader has been named since.

Al-Qaeda's central leader Ayman al-Zawahiri, on the other hand, has been silent for some time, raising questions in various quarters as to whether he is ill or dead. But the fact is that despite all these incidents, al-Qaeda's branches in Somalia and Mali are still very effective. Ideologically, al-Qaeda is in a state of disarray. Will they change themselves and innovate their methods so that they can re-incorporate Muslims into their organization or will they stick to jihadi principles and become unpopular? If they take the path of modernism, they will not be able to call their organization a jihadist, and this could lead to the organization's conservative individual support being split and abandoned. And if they go the other way, it is very likely that their ability to work will be greatly reduced, which could lead to the complete dissolution of the organization. The organization that represents al-Qaeda in Syria is Horas al-Din, which has failed to expand its operations. One of the reasons for its failure is that various jihadist organizations are working together there, and on the other hand, they are under strict surveillance by the Americans who are keeping a close eye on their activities.

Another problem for this organization is that it is not very popular in Syria and the people there see it as Al Qaeda and they fear that it will lead to international action against Syria. Horas al-Din has been inactive for the past two months since the action was taken against him by local Syrian jihadist organizations and the United States has carried out airstrikes against senior leaders of the organization.

Al-Qaeda's Yemen branch, also known as Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), was once al-Qaeda's most dangerous branch, but it has suffered casualties this year and has been inactive for some time. Their leader was killed in a US drone strike in January this year and was recently defeated by Houthi rebels in Yemen's Baida province. In addition, various spies have been trying to infiltrate the organization for years in order to target their leaders, and there is a lot of division in the organization. But there has been one incident this year that proves that the AQAP still has the potential to play the role that Western nations are most worried about: the Lone Wolf Attack, especially the West. In countries. In February, the group admitted that it had been involved in an attack in Florida, USA, in December last year. The bomber struck shortly afternoon in front of a Saudi military base. Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), on the other hand, is one of the most inactive branches of the organization whose leader was assassinated in June. Three months later, the North African branch has not named a successor to its Algerian leader.

It is not clear why this is so, but it can be said that the absence of a leader for a group shows the failure of that group. North Africa has been a region where al Qaeda has struggled to gain a foothold.

Founded in March 2017, Jamaat-e-Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimeen (JNIM) operates in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, and is the most active branch of al-Qaeda after al-Shabab, an al-Qaeda affiliate based in Somalia. Attacks by the JNIM have focused on local and non-local troops, especially French troops stationed along the coast. But recently it has become clear that they are facing competition from the extremist organization Islamic State. In February this year, the JNIM signaled to the Malian government that it was ready to negotiate with it, but then there was a change of government after a military coup in August and once matters were put on hold. There is no doubt that al-Shabab is the most powerful and dangerous of al-Qaeda's affiliates. They control various areas in central and southern Somalia. In addition, they have often carried out attacks in other parts of Somalia and even in neighboring Kenya. In January of this year, they attacked the US military base in Manda Bay in Kenya, killing three Americans and destroying several ships. Also in August, al-Shabab attacked a hotel in Mogadishu, killing several people. Successful attacks by al-Shabab and JNIM encouraged al-Qaeda, which launched a propaganda campaign in 2019 that focused on Jerusalem, and further expanded that campaign in 2020.

The campaign is aimed at "liberating Palestine" and calls the United States its biggest rival. Founded in March 2017, Jamaat-e-Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimeen (JNIM) operates in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Nigeria. A month before its release, there were rumors that Ayman al-Zawahiri may have fallen ill or died. This was said because they usually send a message on important events but it was not happening. In addition, several key al Qaeda leaders have been killed in Afghanistan and Pakistan in recent years, or have been targeted by drones in Syria. A peace deal between the United States and the Afghan Taliban in February agreed that the Taliban would not harbor any international jihadist group and that this could cause problems for al-Qaeda.

But al-Qaeda has continued its efforts to campaign against the US government under the guise of the Coronavirus crisis and ethnic protests in the United States. Al-Qaeda has sent messages to the United States and other Western countries that its government has failed to help them in the crisis and that it needs to take up arms to end the "racist" treatment of African Americans. But it is not clear whether al-Qaeda's message to the American people will have any effect, especially since the messaging organization itself carried out the biggest terrorist attack on American soil.