Can a US-led alliance of Asian nations counter China's influence in the Indo-Pacific region?

 The United States, India, Australia and Japan are working to increase military and trade cooperation to counter China's growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region. For this purpose, an informal platform called the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue or Quad has been set up. The future of this partnership is threatened by possible internal political changes in Japan and the United States. Progress in negotiations on the border dispute between China and India will also play a role in determining how effective the four-nation alliance will be. In early September, US Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Began said the alliance was working to hold a meeting in New Delhi by the end of October to formalize the alliance on the basis of "common interests". can go. Ahead of the US Deputy Secretary of State's statement, earlier this year, representatives from Australia, India and Japan agreed to form an alliance that would strengthen trade ties in the Indo-Pacific region. Dominance can be countered. India and China have been embroiled in a border dispute since June this year, and despite talks between the two countries' ministers and military personnel, no significant progress has been made in withdrawing troops and easing tensions. The four-party alliance was formed informally in 2007 through the efforts of then-Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. In the same year, the four countries held joint naval exercises in the Indian Ocean. However, the coalition failed to achieve its goals. Australia withdrew from the exercises in 2008 and India did not invite it again. According to recent Indian media reports, the naval exercises are expected to begin early next year and India now intends to invite Australia to participate. India's renewed interest in the alliance is aimed at securing international support and assistance in securing its borders and building a strong force against China. But the situation is uncertain in terms of whether India will take its steps against China to such an extent that it will adversely affect its ongoing dialogue with China. India's invitation to Australia to take part in joint naval exercises on the occasion means sending a message to China that in the context of the Indo-Pacific region as a whole, these countries are united against China. Are happening But according to sources, such an attempt could upset China and end the ongoing talks. Differences between Australia and China over issues such as trade, security and alleged espionage have brought Australia closer to the United States and its allies.

According to some commentators on the Australian TV channel ABC, "China did not expect such an alliance to come into being. But they have forced us to do so. That's what's bothering them. " A US-led military alliance in the Indo-Pacific region could compete with China. In the region, China is pursuing its major targets, the Belt and Road Project and its military presence in the South China Sea.

Observers say that if the alliance takes a formal form, it will be considered a major success for President Trump's administration, which is said to have weakened the United States in terms of global leadership. Experts believe that even if there is a change of leadership in the US presidential election in November, there will be no major change in US policy towards China. The September 4 editorial in the web magazine The Diplomat said that "there will be a difference in tone, style and words between the Biden administration and the Trump administration on China, rather than a change in policy."

According to China's official newspaper Global Times, "China's relations with India and Japan have not deteriorated as fast as China's relations with the United States." China is in talks with India, while Japan needs China for economic growth in the days following the Corona virus outbreak. Following Shinzo Abe's ouster as Japan's prime minister, questions have been raised about the country's relationship with the alliance and its overall strategy for China. All eyes are now on the new Prime Minister, Yoshihide Soga. Under his leadership, Japan is unlikely to sever ties with the four-nation alliance, but it remains to be seen whether Yoshihide Soga, like his predecessor Shinzo Abe, will play a more active role in the alliance. no. Recent pressure from China has forced countries like Australia and India to build a multi-faceted platform that can compete with China. However, the ability of China to compete in this alliance will depend on how clearly the member states agree on their goals.To avoid the situation of 2008, the alliance will have to define the scope of mutual cooperation, although in recent years Australia, India and Japan have signed bilateral agreements in the fields of defense and trade. The Indian newspaper The Times of India wrote in its September 14 editorial, "Is it a military rapprochement against China or will other elements of the partnership, such as trade, be part of it?" Efforts are also being made to include some members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in the alliance. Observers say the real test of the alliance will be the extent to which member states side with each other in bilateral disputes with China. To make this alliance stronger and deeper, more and more bilateral agreements are needed between the member countries. "The problem is that the security interests of the United States, Australia, India and Japan are not completely identical," the ASEAN Post reported. India and Japan face a more 'severe and immediate' threat from China than the rest of the alliance.