Corona virus and growing burden on Pakistani hospitals: Can hospitals run out of code 19 patients?

The number of coronavirus patients in Pakistan was around 9,000 two weeks ago and now exceeds 30,000. Since April 1, the number of people infected with COD 19 has been increasing by about 1,000 new patients on a daily basis. The World Health Organization (WHO) has warned that "unless precautionary measures are taken, the number of corona patients in Pakistan could exceed 200,000 by mid-July." After that, whether they increase or decrease, they will not disappear completely. Doctors and medical experts fear that if this happens, the health system in the country will not be able to bear this burden because even if all the government hospitals in Pakistan are combined, there is not enough room for patients. Not all Corona victims will need to go to the hospital, but if half or a quarter of them come to the hospital, will there be room for them or not? He could not find a hospital bed. His wife told the BBC she had "put her husband on a stretcher and taken him to hospital ..." He was told that hospital beds were not available. The incident with Dr. Furqan-ul-Haq reflects the concerns that doctors in Pakistan have expressed about Corona. That is, a time when a Corona patient living in quarantine at home will need a hospital and either will not have a place for them or will not get a place in the hospital on time. If we look at the statistics regarding the hospitals in Pakistan and the facilities available in them, it is clear that these concerns are based on reality. According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, by the end of the financial year 2018, there were a total of 132227 beds in Pakistan's hospitals spread across 1279 government hospitals and 5671 dispensaries across the country. The total number of beds in 388 hospitals of Punjab province is 60191 in terms of population volume. This was followed by 39,564 beds in Sindh, 22,154 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, 7,747 in Balochistan and 2,571 in the federal capital. However, not all of these beds can be reserved for corona patients. According to Pakistan's Economic Survey, by the end of fiscal year 2017, one hospital bed was available to every 1,580 people in the country. Pakistan has an average of one bed for every 1580 patients. That is why the country's largest province, Punjab, was initially able to allocate only 1,122 beds for Corona patients in all hospitals. In view of the increasing number of patients, this number was increased to more than three thousand, but it also decreased. After that, temporary field hospitals were established. Similarly, in Sindh province, the government has announced to set up field hospitals in all districts. Combined with the number of beds available in field hospitals, the number of hospital beds currently available to Corona patients in Pakistan is just over 19,000. During the month from February 15 to March 15, there were only about 50 confirmed cases of corona in Pakistan. In the next fortnight, that number had risen to about 2,000, and in the next fortnight to about 6,000. The patient growth rate more than doubled and continued to rise in the coming days. In the last ten days, more than a thousand people in Pakistan have been diagnosed with corona every day. If the number of patients continues to rise at the same rate, there will be more than 100,000 corona cases in Pakistan by mid-June, and if the epidemic is not stopped, the number will double by mid-July. The World Health Organization has predicted. The number of Corona patients in Pakistan is still around 20,000 if the recovery and deaths are removed. About 5,000 to 6,000 of them are currently in hospitals and the rest in quarantine centers, according to the Federal Department of Health.

It should be noted that a large number of those who recovered were pilgrims who had initially come from Iran. How many people recover from quarantine centers in the coming days and how many need to be sent to hospitals is not yet known. It is not known how many of these new patients will be hospitalized, but if 5,000 out of 20,000 patients need hospitalization, that proportion will require 50,000 out of 200,000 corona patients to be hospitalized by mid-July. ۔

With this in mind, Pakistan will need more than 30,000 beds for Corona patients in the next two months. Punjab, Pakistan's largest province, still has 7,753 beds for corona patients, according to the health department. There are more than 4,500 beds in field hospitals set up specifically to deal with the epidemic. According to the Department of Primary and Secondary Health, initially the number of beds in hospitals was a little more than 1,100 in places called Isolation Centers or High Dependency Units. This number was later increased but the government had to set up field hospitals. Similarly, according to the Federal Health Department, there are 4688 beds for corona patients in Sindh province. According to the provincial health department, the number of isolation beds was initially just over 450, while the total number of beds combined with quarantine centers was around 8,000. It may be recalled that Punjab and Sindh have the highest number of patients at present which has exceeded 10,000 individually in both the provinces. According to the provincial health department, the number of beds in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is 3,046 Was near which has now been increased to 4093 whereas in Balochistan province initially the number of beds was 927 which has been increased to 2136. The number of patients in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan has exceeded 4,000 and 2,000 respectively. In a recent message from Punjab Chief Minister Usman Bazdar, it was stated that field hospitals have been set up in different cities in the province for corona patients with a capacity of 4500 beds up to 10000 beds if required. Can be extended. The largest field hospital with more than a thousand beds was built at the Expo Center in Lahore, which is now more than half full. Similarly, a 1,200-bed field hospital in Karachi, Sindh province, was set up at the Expo Center with the help of the Pakistan Army, while the Sindh government announced plans to set up field hospitals with a total capacity of 10,000 beds in different districts of the province. Similarly, the governments of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan have also announced the construction of a field hospital. Most field hospitals in different cities of Pakistan are still treating patients with mild to moderate coronary heart disease. Most sick patients are transferred to hospital ICUs. However, this may change in the coming days.However, to ensure adequate care for minor patients, approximately 84 doctors for every 30 beds are required to work over a six-hour period. That is, governments need to recruit new doctors and paramedical staff for field hospitals.

New doctors were also recruited for the Expo Center Hospital in Lahore. However, patients at the same field hospital had recently protested against the management for not removing dirt from the hospital for two consecutive days and providing poor facilities